Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."

• Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.

But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.